All that fuss about ChatGPT
Abraham George Musings
The world is abuzz with ChatGPT. It is intriguing and creepy. I have been using it and it is just unbelievable. One thing I learned soon is the key to getting better answers is in how you frame your questions.
ChatGPT adoption is nothing short of spectacular. It took the telephone 75 years to reach 100m people. ChatGPT has taken just two months. It outdid the incumbent TikTok which had taken nine months.
Before anything let me make a few predictions. This is going to revolutionize productivity. 2023 will be the year when artificial intelligence will make a big mark on societies all around the world. This is going to democratize information in a much bigger way than it has already been done. It is so functional that in due course it will replace search engines entirely. But it has a major downside too.
Last week ChatGPT passed all three parts of the US medical licensing Exam (USMLE). What is more impressive is that ChatGPT has done this with no specific medical training whatsoever. It has also passed some bar examinations.
It is only a few months that this technology is in the open but it can answer basic questions and write essays about any given topic. It can also compare and contrast different philosophies and opinions. Get this, the AI can even write software code upon command.
I see the possibilities of this technology enhancing everything that we do with our routine activities and even challenging some of the most guarded and respected professions.
For example, generative AIs can incorporate the entire body of research in every area of medicine into their diagnoses. No single physician could possibly do that.
Not to forget that AIs can be updated every day. They will always incorporate the latest peer-reviewed research into their suggestions. Currently, we are living in a world where on average we work 7 hours for 5 days a week. Think of a world where we will be working 7 days a week for 24 hours a day. How productive and deflationary that it will be?
Take this a step further. We can upload the patient’s DNA sequencing data into the AI as well. Now the AI can take the patient’s specific genetic structure into account to make its recommendations.
Can you see where I am going with this? There are areas in the world where there simply aren’t enough doctors to service the population. AI-based tools like this will be a game changer in those places.
And remember they are available 24/7. They never get tired. They don’t get upset and they always perform their task with the same level of performance. Can you imagine where this technology can lead you in a year’s time?
As I have been writing all along blockchain and AI will revolutionize mankind like no other time in history. The only difference is that this fourth industrial revolution, unfortunately, will create more divisiveness, more political and religious divisions, and more difficulty to understand what is true and untrue. It is like no other time in history.
Travel through history and take note of all the past industrial revolutions uncovering crucial events and technological advancements. The major events I can think of in one word are the steam engine, electricity, and computers. All improved our standard of living and did not have many conflicts with our past lives but this revolution will be different.
Last year or the year before last I wrote a multi-series on why data will be the new oil. This only reconfirms my belief that good data will be the key edge in most big businesses. Generative AI will continue to create better content and will have intelligent conversations with users.
But there is going to be a race in this space from all corners. Google internally should be worried and will do everything to catch up.
But look what is happening in China. Baidu just announced that it’s working on its own version of ChatGPT. Baidu clearly has other intentions with their version. The Chinese government strictly controls the internet throughout mainland China and it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone as they are a communist country. China is known for its physical “ Great Wall of China “ but they also employ what they refer to as “ The Great Firewall “ to censor and block any information that runs counter to the government’s desired narrative.
If the Chinese tech companies don’t work closely with the government they really cannot stay in business. Look what happened to Jack Ma and Alibaba.
It is important to understand that the AI they are only capable of producing output based on the information they are trained on. It is garbage in, garbage out. The AI’s output depends on the input.
Therefore Baidu will train its generative AI only on the information that the CCP seems acceptable. The AI would not be trained on the entire open internet as ChatGPT is.
If the events of the last few years are anything to go by, for China it is not about gaining market share or competing with the West. It is all about retaining control of the information Chinese citizens receive. It could come to a stage where AI will replace search engines. Ask it a question and it will give you the state-approved answer. So much for progress in technology and exploration of ideas.
When it comes to AI, the technology itself is neutral. In the case of OpenAI which owns ChatGPT, there are strong levels of bias introduced to the data sets which clearly restricts the output of ChatGPT which probably is not fair, balanced, or non-discriminatory. This can really become a major issue in a free and democratic country.
This is probably the greatest challenge we will face in the next decade or so. A powerful tech like this has its positives and negatives. Ideally, chatbots and other forms of artificial intelligence like this should not be manipulated to push certain agendas or politics. That is the challenge many of us will face. The world at large can benefit a lot from AI that provides a balanced and objective view of the world’s body of knowledge. But that will be something we all will struggle to come to grips with.
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Abraham George is a seasoned investment manager with more than 40 years of experience in trading & investment and multi-billion dollar portfolio management spanning diverse environments like banks (HSBC, ADCB), sovereign wealth fund (ADIA), a royal family office, and a hedge fund.