Bailout Impasse, Stimulus Drama

Abraham George Macro View

Last week’s biggest news was that the POTUS contracted coronavirus. Those who believe in karma started to believe that all of the hardships and sacrifices of the last seven months were worth it after all. The atheists among the Democrats started to become believers. For them, this was divine retribution that was coming. Nearly half the population got down on their knees and prayed fervently ‘please take him away’.

The other half were praying for his recovery. Looks like the Almighty heard the Republicans prayers as he came back on the third day looking much stronger and dumber. Maybe the steroid treatment has not worn off completely. It is not a miracle that Mr. Trump recovered from the COVID attack. The treatments and medicines must have helped him to be back soon. But actually he joins a long list of world leaders who had contracted the virus and survived. The leaders of Brazil, UK, Bolivia, Honduras, Guatemala and Belarus stand testimony to that. Almost all of them are old.

While the opinion polls are clearly favoring a Biden victory by as much as 12% Trump thinks that’s all fake. As soon as he was back to office, he has followed up on his bitter feud with speaker Nancy Pelosi. This is what he had to say:

“Nancy Pelosi is asking for $ 2.4 trio to bailout poorly run , high crime , Democrat States , money that is in no way related to COVID-19. We made a very generous offer of $ 1.6 trio and as usual , she is not negotiating in good faith. I am rejecting their request and looking to the future of our country. I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and small business.”

Trump further added, “The House & Senate should immediately approve 25 bio dollars for airline payroll support & 135 bio dollars to paycheck protection program (PPP) for small business. Both of these will be fully paid for with unused funds from the Cares Act. We have this money. I will sign now!”

Trump is putting the ball back in the court of the Democrats. It seems unthinkable that Pelosi and company would agree to any of these demands. Trump’s narrative to the American people will be that he’s ready to sign, to get money in your hands but the Democrats are the problem. And with that he will use the nuclear option in his Executive capacity.

Despite all the drama the stock markets have been holding up very well and remember the day before the election the monthly non farm payroll figures will be released. It is expected to be a big positive number. If so, that may force many of the fence sitters for this election to vote for Trump. My point is people will vote more from their pockets than an idealistic view on climate change.

Equities

The markets have been all over the place in the last two days and everything was on the back of statements from the White House. However prices have respected our resistance and support levels very closely.

While the close resistance at 3440 to 3450 can continue to hold in the S&P 500, the alternate view is that the move down from the Sep 03 high to Sep 24 low is an A-B-C pattern meaning it’s corrective and there is the risk of it moving above the Sep 03 high before it turns lower.

Bonds

The bonds continue to work lower and we are confident there is more in it in the coming days.

Euro

The Euro respected our resistance areas and moved down but has since moved up again. Resistance at 1.1808 should hold and prices should decline soon.

Gold

Gold could not break above our resistance area of 1925 and fell back to 1873. Want to believe the support at 1873 should hold and move above 1925. However if it is capped again at 1925 the risks increase for a move down below 1873 and for the down trend to reassert again.

Abraham George is a seasoned investment manager with more than 40 years of experience in trading & investment and portfolio management spanning diverse environments like banks (HSBC, ADCB), sovereign wealth fund (ADIA), a royal family office and a hedge fund.