Erdonomics' storm clouds

Storm clouds darken over the Argentina on the Bosphorus. The Turkish lira is in free fall at 7.66 and vindicates my perma-short idea at 6.50. I see the TRY tank to 9 as the current account goes berserk.

The debt crisis blows up, tourism/EU exports are gutted by the pandemic and the chaos on the Iraqi/Syrian borders blows back into Eastern Anatolia. Erdonomics is just about as rational as medieval alchemy and the Sultan wants Central Bank governors who dare to raise interest rates beheaded on Topkapi Gate as traitors. The US dollar is now the de-facto haven currency.

Erdoganesque geopolitics is equally insane. Threatening war with Greece on the Eastern Med gasfields means a Falklands style end-game.

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I have one great problem with my oldest and wisest friend in the world. Marcus Tullius Cicero died two thousand years before I was born. His warning "not to know history is to forever remain a child" could be the epitaph on my grave.

Marcus Aurelius Caesar said it all on his deathbed "cerebellum excretum vincit" (bullshit baffles the brain). In the financial markets, I learnt the hard way that not to know history means to forever fear a margin call.

Matein Khalid is the Chief Investment Officer of Asas Capital Management. He has 25 years of experience in international capital markets as an advisor to family offices and fund managers. He has worked for investment banks/hedge funds in New York, Chicago, London, and Geneva. In addition, he has been the CIO of a technology fund in San Francisco, a royal investment office in Dubai and a public insurance company listed on the DFM.