Prepare yourself for the coming paradigm shift
Abraham George Crypto Musings
Today is a very important day in the ongoing saga of Ripple vs. SEC. There is a court hearing at 3 pm EST and should give some clarity on how this case could end.
All along, for more than a year and a half, I have followed this case very closely. In the process, I have learned more about legal matters than the markets. This is a fascinating story that I believe once settled will be produced as a movie. So you all can see the more dramatized version.
As it stands the SEC is on the back foot on every move that they have made to bring down Ripple. At every stage, they lost it with the courts and now they are panicking to hide their own internal corruption. Ripple for that matter had done no wrong and has always wanted regulatory clarity. This will turn out to be a David vs. Goliath story and finally how David becomes the king.
The history of past cases where the SEC has made charges against an entity or an individual is that 98% of the time SEC wins. The main reason behind this is that the SEC wins by the rules of enforcement. They bring charges on someone and delay the case as much as possible and finally the chargee is forced to settle with the SEC. The chargee doesn’t have unlimited funds to fight the SEC. So they pay up and move on. So, my hopes of Ripple winning the case were much muted but not anymore.
As to the Ripple case, there were nefarious motives. They wanted to bring Ripple down to promote Ethereum. All this is in the open now and the court knows exactly what has happened. The SEC has lost it out with the courts on all counts (except in their ability to delay the procedure) claiming that they had given Ripple ‘fair notice status’, trying to prove XRP has no utility, and trying to prevent outside lawyer John Deaton to represent about 67,000 XRP investors and now they are trying to hide about 68 internal e-mails which the judge has ordered SEC to hand it over to Ripple but the SEC is refusing to.
The SEC would rather have their right hand cut off but they will not give these emails. It will clearly expose their internal corruption and there is every possibility that they have discussed internally, “how can we give a free pass status to Ethereum when we are deeming XRP as a security”. By doing this, they will lose the case plus any ability to have a ruling, governance, and enforcement with any future companies that have to be regulated.
Instead, this is what could happen. Judge Sarah Netburn could force the SEC to settle with Ripple. In the process, Ripple would have to pay a fine for the period 2013 when they sold the tokens to the public. For that, SEC will give clarity to Ripple stating that they are no more security. Ripple will be more than happy to agree to this as they have enough money to pay a fine. XRP will become the first cryptocurrency to have regulatory clarity. This way SEC will not lose face and can claim that they forced Ripple to pay up. But the SEC will not be left off the hook as Congress will come hard on them later too. Heads will roll and many working procedures will change too.
Let’s look at the real markets. There is a very interesting article published by CNBC where Ted Pick the co-President of Morgan Stanley makes this statement. He says global markets are at the beginning of a fundamental shift after a nearly 15-year period defined by very low-interest rates and cheap corporate debt. It is an extraordinary moment, we have our first pandemic in 100 years. We have our first invasion in Europe in 75 years and we have our first inflation around the world in 40 years. All this points to a paradigm shift.
This very well ties with what I have been writing about an upcoming debt jubilee and how that can play out. Comments from JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs President John Waldron, and Black Rock CEO Larry Fink are all preparing the markets for this.
Does this mean we all have to move to cash? No! There are great opportunities like shooting fish in a barrel. But one needs to put all the pieces together to make sense of these opportunities.
If you received value from this post, and you’d like to send some back, or if you’d like to signal to me to continue spending time on these types of explorations, feel free to buy me coffees (thank you!):
So, there we go. Thanks for reading Breezy Briefings. If you enjoyed this, I'd really appreciate it if you could take a second and tell a friend. Honestly. It makes such a big difference.
Forward this email. Recommend the newsletter. Share on Twitter, WhatsApp, Telegram, LinkedIn, Slack, wherever!
Join Breezy Briefings’ Official Telegram Channel: https://t.me/BreezyBriefings
Abraham George is a seasoned investment manager with more than 40 years of experience in trading & investment and multi-billion dollar portfolio management spanning diverse environments like banks (HSBC, ADCB), sovereign wealth fund (ADIA), a royal family office and a hedge fund. Currently, he is a co-founder of a new hedge fund where foreign citizens can invest in Indian growth stocks like Tanla operating in hyper-growth markets like CPaaS.