RNC 2020 - Trump family reunion
Abraham George Macro View
Last week we had the treat of watching four days of the DNC national convention. The speakers were all aligned to one specific line of thought and they were in unison. Trump is really a bad man and he doesn’t deserve to be re-elected again.
We all know Joe Biden. He has been in politics since the age of 29. He has been a vice-president for 8 years. The speakers all rallied behind Biden to portray that he is a nice man and will make a good president.
The way things are progressing and how Trump is self destructing himself looks like Biden just has to stay in Delaware and not make any serious gaffes.
The RNC national convention starts this week and glancing by the list of speakers looks like more than half the speakers are from the Trump family. Even Tiffany Trump who is Trump’s only daughter through his second wife is a speaker. I have never seen her on any speaking engagements before.
Surprising that Mitch McConnell the senate majority leader is not speaking. May be some health reasons or is it that he doesn’t want to be on board of a sinking ship. Of course VP Mike Pence is there and he looks more like, he is gate crashing a Trump family reunion party. Former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and few other lesser known names will be also speaking.
The general consensus is for a thumping victory for Biden. So don’t know what can Trump do at this late stage to change the tide in his favor. Don’t think a vaccine two weeks before the elections can even save the president.
Still one cannot write off Trump as the US presidency is decided on an electoral vote on who first gets to the magic number of 270. On a popular vote, Trump’s chances are not even one in hundred.
It looks like Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny may survive the “poison attack” as he is recovering in Germany but may be incapacitated for months. Surprising that opposition leaders in Russia has still not learnt that if you are someone that has made Putin mad, you shouldn’t be drinking or eating anything from a public place.
Steve Bannon is in a lot of trouble and he is probably the sixth or seventh close aides of president Trump who had to go to jail. Not a very good sign for the president to be re-elected.
Equities
When it looked very much that the markets could open the trap doors for a down move, markets continued to grind higher. The general that has been resisting any selling has been Apple. It is trading just under 500. The S&P 500 also tested significant round number of 3400.
No doubt the momentum is waning but until we see a clear move below some critical levels we cannot be more conclusive about the down move.
Bonds
Bonds must have seen a top on Friday or it may make one more attempt to 181 before it turns down.
Euro
We believe the Euro is at the forefront of a larger decline. After declining to 1.1754 it can rally to mid 1.1850 or slightly higher. Think the next down move will be impulsive.
Gold
The gold move down looks impulsive. From the lows of 1911 it can recover to 1950 to 1975. Prices could eventually draw closer to the 1700 handle.
Abraham George is a seasoned investment manager with more than 40 years of experience in trading & investment and portfolio management spanning diverse environments like banks (HSBC, ADCB), sovereign wealth fund (ADIA), a royal family office and a hedge fund.