The Bull Case For Oil
This is oil year-till-date, folks. Absolutely destroyed.
It’s hard not to buy some at these levels. Let me elaborate on the bull case.

WTI futures were at record contango just 2 days ago. Previous extremes have marked major bottoms.

Oil-to-S&P 500 is forming a historic double bottom. Prior low was December 1998 and oil went up 240% in the next 22 months.
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Oil vs. its 200-day moving average:
Now as distorted as it was in the depth of the global financial crisis and bottom of the 1985-6 crash.

Energy high-yield credit spreads just reached record levels with WTI prices at 18-year lows.
An incredibly bullish setup.Â

Energy service stocks are truly at historic low valuations. The overall industry now trades at 0.35x annual revenues! Plenty value to be found.

The commodities-to-equity ratio is at a 50-year low.
One of our core positions still is: Long gold & short stocks.
Oil and energy stocks have big asymmetric upside here and makes sense as part of the long mix.

Otavio Costa is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
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