Turkey vs Greece – Dangerous Mediterranean Dispute
The eastern Mediterranean evokes memories of sandy beaches at this time of year. It's become a refuge for superyachts fleeing Covid-ravaged Spain. Unfortunately, the area is also luring warships this summer, as tensions increase over contested waters between Greece and Turkey. A collision on 12 August between Greek and Turkish frigates was the worst conflict between the two NATO allies since a face-off in 1996 on an uninhabited island that almost led to war. France has moved a few Rafale fighter jets to Crete in a display of unity with Greece, a fellow EU member, and deployed two warships for training with the Greek navy. When calm heads do not prevail, there is a possibility that things will escalate further — even to blows.
Three key ingredients make this a tough recipe. One is interest in gas deposits in the area, which have drawn attention not only from Greece and Turkey but also from Cyprus, Israel, Egypt and others for nearly a decade. Many countries aim to be a global energy center, helping to supply the European market and giving Russia's gas a strategic alternative. Boosters hoped that pipelines running through the eastern Med area could be a mechanism for regional cooperation which they have in some cases.
Yet the second ingredient in the Mediterranean mix has overshadowed the expectation elsewhere: rivalries in the region. Instead of diluting them, they got amplified by the energy stimulus. Cyprus remains split between a southern Greek-Cypriot and a northern Turkey-recognized Turkish Republic of Cyprus. Turkish ships now carry out seismic surveys in Cypriot waters once again.
Relations between Greece and Turkey still run the risk of flaring up over the disputed territories. After the signing last November of an agreement between Turkey and Libya's un-backed National Accord Government (GNA), the latest confrontation has been in the making. The deal claims a broad maritime boundary which looks ridiculous to Greeks and international law as well. German attempts to put Greeks and Turks together for talks came close to succeeding before Greece and Egypt hurried to finalize a maritime zone deal earlier this month that reversed the one between Turkey and Libya. The Turkish response was to give the region a seismic-research vessel with a naval escort — involved in the collision with an elderly Greek frigate.
Aggravating all of this are broader frictions surrounding the third ingredient stewing in the bowl, Turkey, from Libya to Syria. Turkey and France are at loggerheads in Libya; Turkish warships blocked a French frigate from examining a ship accused of bringing weapons into the GNA in June. The French don't like being pushed aside. The Turks, for their part, condemn French interference and think Greece and its friends are ganging up against them. Turkey’s response, under its authoritarian president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is to throw its weight around. He may feel emboldened because some countries, such as Britain, are keen to avoid antagonizing a NATO ally while others, especially Germany, are afraid that if pressed too hard, Turkey could cause chaos by allowing more migrants to reach Europe.
How do we defuse the situation? America may have jumped in to protect the ring in the past (as it did after the 1996 clash). Yet the chaos in the eastern Mediterranean demonstrates how unravelling the old order is — and at what cost. The president of France, Emmanuel Macron, was due to invite chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany to his presidential retreat on the French Med at Fort de Brégançon on August 20th. A combination of Mr Macron's muscle and Mrs Merkel's mediation could still prove successful in convincing Turkey that while it cannot acknowledge its rule-breaking, it should listen to its concerns. The aim is to build some breathing room to think about Greece and Turkey. A ban on exploration in contested waters could well be a positive start.
The irony is that major oil firms are avoiding further drilling near Cyprus, despite today's low prices. The transition to cleaner energy proceeds apace. Energy firms are becoming more selective in the way they spend. The longer the representatives of the eastern Mediterranean squabble, the greater the risk that gas wealth will remain underneath the seabed.